Wednesday, December 31, 2008
From Investors Business Daily
Climate Change: The Earth has been warming ever since the end of the Little Ice Age. But guess what: Researchers say mankind is to blame for that, too.
As we've noted, 2008 has been a year of records for cold and snowfall and may indeed be the coldest year of the 21st century thus far. In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month of October.
Global thermometers stopped rising after 1998, and have plummeted in the last two years by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius. The 2007-2008 temperature drop was not predicted by global climate models. But it was predictable by a decline in sunspot activity since 2000.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop near zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins. But this year, the start of a new cycle, the sun has been eerily quiet.
The first seven months averaged a sunspot count of only three and in August there were no sunspots at all — zero — something that has not occurred since 1913.
According to the publication Daily Tech, in the past 1,000 years, three previous such events — what are called the Dalton, Maunder and Sporer Minimums — have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called the Little Ice Age (1500-1750).
The Little Ice Age has been a problem for global warmers because it serves as a reminder of how the earth warms and cools naturally over time. It had to be ignored in the calculations that produced the infamous and since-discredited hockey stick graph that showed a sharp rise in warming alleged to be caused by man.
The answer to this dilemma has supposedly been found by two Stanford researchers, Richard Nevle and Dennis Bird, who announced their "findings" at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. According to them, man not only is causing contemporary warming. He also caused the cooling that preceded it.
According to Bird and Nevle, before Columbus ruined paradise, native Americans had deforested a significant portion of the continent and converted the land to agricultural purposes. Less CO2 was then absorbed from the atmosphere, and the earth was toasty.
Then a bunch of nasty old white guys arrived and depopulated the native populations through war and the diseases they brought with them. This led to the large-scale abandonment of agricultural lands. The subsequent reforestation of the continent caused temperatures to drop enough to bring on the Little Ice Age.
Implicit in this research is that the world would be fine if man wasn't in the way. We either make the world too cold or too hot, a view held by many in high places.
In a speech at Harvard last November, Harvard physicist John Holden, President-elect Obama's choice to be his science adviser as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology, presented a "top 10" list of warming solutions.
Topping the list was "limiting population," as if man was a plague upon the earth. This is a major tenet of green dogma that bemoans the fact that the pestilence called mankind comes with cars, factories and overconsumption of fossil fuels and other resources.
R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Centre of Canada's Carleton University, says: "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."
Indeed, a look at a graph of solar irradiance from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows little solar activity during the Little Ice Age and significant activity during recent times.
Don't blame Dick and Jane — blame sunspots.
Nothing new
Monday, December 29, 2008
Maybe I should start a food blog? The above photos are of two of the dishes we made over the last week. Top left is a jambalaya that I made from scratch last night. I substituted salsa for tomatoes since I'm not a big fan of them and it turned out great. The top right is the standing rib roast that we made on Christmas. It was delicious, cooked perfectly medium, and everyone enjoyed it.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved
Looking back over my columns of the past 12 months, one of their major themes was neatly encapsulated by two recent items from The Daily Telegraph.
By Christopher Booker Last Updated: 5:51PM GMT 27 Dec 2008
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The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts" , reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation" , reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".
Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.
First, all over the world, temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all those computer models which have been used as the main drivers of the scare. Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.
Ever shriller and more frantic has become the insistence of the warmists, cheered on by their army of media groupies such as the BBC, that the last 10 years have been the "hottest in history" and that the North Pole would soon be ice-free – as the poles remain defiantly icebound and those polar bears fail to drown. All those hysterical predictions that we are seeing more droughts and hurricanes than ever before have infuriatingly failed to materialise.
Even the more cautious scientific acolytes of the official orthodoxy now admit that, thanks to "natural factors" such as ocean currents, temperatures have failed to rise as predicted (although they plaintively assure us that this cooling effect is merely "masking the underlying warming trend", and that the temperature rise will resume worse than ever by the middle of the next decade).
Secondly, 2008 was the year when any pretence that there was a "scientific consensus" in favour of man-made global warming collapsed. At long last, as in the Manhattan Declaration last March, hundreds of proper scientists, including many of the world's most eminent climate experts, have been rallying to pour scorn on that "consensus" which was only a politically engineered artefact, based on ever more blatantly manipulated data and computer models programmed to produce no more than convenient fictions.
Thirdly, as banks collapsed and the global economy plunged into its worst recession for decades, harsh reality at last began to break in on those self-deluding dreams which have for so long possessed almost every politician in the western world. As we saw in this month's Poznan conference, when 10,000 politicians, officials and "environmentalists" gathered to plan next year's "son of Kyoto" treaty in Copenhagen, panicking politicians are waking up to the fact that the world can no longer afford all those quixotic schemes for "combating climate change" with which they were so happy to indulge themselves in more comfortable times.
Suddenly it has become rather less appealing that we should divert trillions of dollars, pounds and euros into the fantasy that we could reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 80 per cent. All those grandiose projects for "emissions trading", "carbon capture", building tens of thousands more useless wind turbines, switching vast areas of farmland from producing food to "biofuels", are being exposed as no more than enormously damaging and futile gestures, costing astronomic sums we no longer possess.
As 2009 dawns, it is time we in Britain faced up to the genuine crisis now fast approaching from the fact that – unless we get on very soon with building enough proper power stations to fill our looming "energy gap" - within a few years our lights will go out and what remains of our economy will judder to a halt. After years of infantile displacement activity, it is high time our politicians – along with those of the EU and President Obama's US – were brought back with a mighty jolt into contact with the real world.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Christmas Eve
Monday, December 22, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Happy Birthday
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Five Oaks
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Rocking around the Christmas Tree
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Surprise
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
Cars
I've gone back and forth in my mind about the auto industry bailout. I'm now at the point where I do not believe the government should bail out GM and Ford. I should add, my investment club owns a small bit of GM but that obviously hasn't influenced my decision too much. Here's where I am:
> the auto industry is crucial to a lot of state's economies, including Ohio's. It's not just the jobs, its the spin-off little shops that are dependent on healthy companies.
> the auto industry is saddled with problems that won't go away with billions of dollars from the government. Union contracts must be renegotiated and benefits must change; this will in all likelihood only happen under bankruptcy.
> why would anyone expect that government intervention and direction will improve the way Detroit does business? I know the government does some things right but generally, anyone else does it better. Anyone. So I have zero confidence that a "car czar" will improve how America makes cars.
> finally, nationalization of industry scares me. It's a socialist model and I'm afraid enough that we are going down that path enough with the "redistribution of wealth" that the incoming President has promised.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Chivas Man
The event is fine, I get my 60 seconds with the Alderman and its time to leave. I need to kill some time so I go back to Sullivans and take that guy up on his free drink. Now, I've stayed true to my vow of one drink a day. Sure, there has been once or twice that I've had two but they've all been when I've had someone offer me a free drink. I think its rude to turn down a gift so I've bended the rule in those cases. But I've kept the spirit of my new life intact and don't intend to deviate.
Chivas has a special place in my heart although I don't particularly like scotch. I have mostly only drank it with Dad and only on special occasions. I figured this was one, if Ross hooks my dad up with some Chivas trinkets and I get a free drink why hey, its a win win.
Now its back to Columbus, arriving at 11:25 pm. I hope I can sleep in tomorrow.
Short Runways
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
As far as the Dow, could it just be responding naturally to ups and downs? It plunged after the election for two weeks and I'm pretty sure it wasn't George Bush's fault. Maybe its hit the bottom, maybe its time to go back up. I hope so.
Interesting news out of IL today about the Governor. I'm surprised at how many people were talkign about it in Columbus Ohio. Interesting to me is how Obama's spokesman "misspoke" about whether they had conversations and his chief of staff "changed his recollection" about their relationship. If you are interested, here's a link. I really hope Obama wasn't involved in this mess. I'm headed to Chicago tomorrow so plan on picking up the Tribune and reading all about it.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/12/questions-arise.html